जनसंख्या

janasankhya manav itihas ka adhyayan karane se vidit hota hai ki janasankhya ki samasya adikal se vishesh mahatv ka prashn rahi hai. yoonani athava 'grik' darshanikoan, visheshakar pleto aur arastoo ne apane lekhoan mean janasankhya sanbandhi vishayoan par anek vichar prakat kie the. 'ripablik' mean pleto ne janasankhya-vriddhi se manavakalyan par p danevale prabhavoan ka varnan kiya hai. nagar rajy ke uchit akar tatha prajanan sudhar (yoojanik riph aaurm) sanbandhi unake vichar ,adarsh samaj ki (aidiyal kamyooniti) unaki dharana par adharit the. parantu arastoo ne is adarsh samaj ki dharana ko asvikar karate hue vivah ke niyantran tatha sanyam dvara janasankhya ki rok par jor diya.

janasankhya niyantran sanbandhi vichar dharanaean

arastoo ke janasankhya niyantran sanbandhi vichar sanpatti se sanbandhit the. isase vidit hota hai ki arastoo upalabdh sadhanoan ki drishti se janasankhya niyantran ke paksh mean the. roman samrajy ko apani vistaravadi samrajy niti ke karan l dakoo sainikoan ki avashyakata thi. at ev ve badhati huee janasankhya ko achchha manate the. agastas ke janasankhya sanbandhi vichar vivah ko protsahan dete the. yoonani lekhakoan ke bad phir 18vian shatabdi ke aant tak janasankhya sanbandhi siddhaantoan par koee ne vichar nahian milate. madhyayug ke samantashahi kal (phyoodal ej) ke pashchath‌ jab rashtriyata ki bhavana ke prasar ka yug ata hai to pun: janasankhya sanbandhi samasyaoan ke prati vicharakoan ki dilachaspi dikhaee deti hai. italiyan lekhak maikiyabeli ke lekhoan mean, durbhiksh tatha mahamari kis prakar janasankhya ki vriddhi ki rok ke lie pratibandh ho sakati haian, isaka abhas milata hai. phir botero , 1588 ke lekhoan mean manav ki yaun pravrittiyoan aur janasankhya-vriddhi ke sabandh me hamean malthas ke vicharoan ka pata chalata hai. phir 1682 mean sar viliyam peti ki pustak 'ain ese kanasaraniang di maltiplikeshan aauv mainakaiand' mean, maithyoo hele ke nibandh mean hamean, malthas dvara bad mean sangathit roop mean pratipadit kie janevale, siddhaant ki pahali rooparekha dikhaee p dati hai. is prakar 18vian shatabdi ke aant tak, malthas ke pahale, is prashn par beanjamin phraiankalin, devid hyoom, rabart vales, joseph taunaseand tatha viliyam paile apane vichar prakat kar chuke the, parantu inake vicharoan mean vaijnanik pranali evan tarkik riti ka abhav tha. at: vastav mean janasankhya sanbandhi samasyaoan ka vaijnanik adhyayan, ti.ar. malthas ki pustak 'ain ese aaun priansipals aauv p aaupuleshan' (1798) ke prakashan ke samay se hi praranbh hota hai.

manushy ke vicharoan par samasamayik vatavaran ka prabhav rahata hi hai, malthas ke vichar bhi unake samay ki den haian. malthas ka samay tha. naipoliyan ki l daee, audyogik kraanti se shramikoan mean phailati huee bekari, durbhiksh tatha mahamari ka bolabala tha. janasankhya mean to vriddhi hoti ja rahi thi parantu jivananirvah ke sadhanoan mean koee vishesh parivartan nahian dikhaee p data tha. in sab paristhitiyoan ko dekhakar tatha vibhinn deshoan ke itihas ke adhyayan se malthas is nishkarsh par pahuanche ki yadi isi tarah se janasankhya mean vriddhi ka kram jari raha to manav samaj ka bhavishy aandhakaramay hai. atev unhoanne badhati huee janasankhya ko abhishap kaha aur malthas dvara uddhrit ayalaiand ke sanbandh mean grin mahoday ne kaha ki kushasan ke pap ke sath daridrata ka abhishap bhi ju d gaya hai aur daridrata, janasankhya-vriddhi tatha akal ne milakar desh ko narakakuand bana diya. malthas svabhav se bhi nirashavadi the. at: unake vichar bhi adhikaansh logoan ko nirashavadi maloom hote haian.

malyas ke siddhaant ki tin mukhy batean

manushy mean yaun ki mool bhavana sarvabhaum hone ke karan sankhyavriddhi ki svabhavik pravritti paee jati hai. isalie yadi koee badha n ho to desh ki abadi vahaan utpann hone vale khady padarthoan ki apeksha adhik tezise badh jaegi. manav mean prajanan shakti itani tej hoti hai ki any badhaoan ki anupasthiti mean, kisi desh ki janasankhya to 25 varshoan mean lagabhag dooni ho jaegi par khady samagri, jisaka utpadan kramagat utpatti-hhras-niyam ke adhin hota hai, itani tezise nahian badh pati.

uparyukt vicharoan ko adhik spasht karane ke liye malthas ne use ganitiy roop diya. unhoanne bataya ki jahaan janasankhya gunottar shreni, yani 1, 2, 4, 8, 16,32 se badhati hai vahaan jivan nirvah ke sadhanoan mean samaantar shreni se yani 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 se vriddhi hoti hai. at: ek aisa samay a jata hai jab jivananirvah ke sadhan, janasankhya ki tulana mean, itane kam rah jate haian ki jivanasangharsh atyant jatil ban jata hai. dhyan rahe, malthas ne yah ganit ka roop keval udaharanarth diya tha aur yah unake siddhaant ka koee avashyak aang nahian hai.

janasankhya par pratibandh

aisi paristhiti mean badhi huee janasankhya ko ghatane tatha naya santulan sthapit karane ke lie prakriti svayan age badhati hai aur naisargik rok laga deti hai jaise mahamari, durbhiksh, badh, yuddh, bhookanp ityadi. isase desh mean ghor vipatti phailati hai, asankhy log asamayik mrityu ke shikar hote haian aur nana prakar ke durachar phailate haian. doosare prakar ke pratibandh ve hote haian jo nirodhak ya svayan manushy dvara lagoo kie jate haian, jaise apekshakrit adhik ayu mean vivah, yuvak-yuvatiyoan dvara brahmachary ke sayanm ka palan ityadi.

malthas ka sujhav

malthas ka vichar tha ki manushy svayan pratibandhak pranaliyoan dvara janasankhya ko simit rakhe. prakriti dvara lagoo ki gee naisargik rogoan ke parinam bahut bure hote haian. naisargik rokoan se mrityusankhya badhati hai. yah ek nakaratmak pranali hai. nirodhak rukavatoan se janmadar mean kami ati hai. yah ek ghanatmak riti hai. naisargik rok aantahin kuchakr ke saman haian. atev manushy ko chahie ki vah svayan atmasanyam dvara janasankhya simit rakhe.

vartaman samay mean is siddhaant ki atyant tivr alochana huee hai. aitihasikata ki dalil par malthas ke siddhaant ko galat bataya jata hai. janasankhya mean vriddhi avashy huee hai parantu vaijnanik avishkar aur phalasvaroop utpadan pranaliyoan mean unnati ke parimanasvaroop jivananirvah ke sadhanoan mean bhi ashcharyajanak unnati huee hai. malthas ki nirashajanak bhavishyavani poornataya asaty siddh huee. malthas ne yah socha bhi nahian tha ki ek samay aega jab manushy shiksha, uchch jivanastar tatha vyaktigat bhavanaoan se prerit hokar svayan ko simit karane ka prayatn karega. anubhav ne yah bhi bataya ki 25 varshoan mean janasankhya duguni ho hi jati hai. vidvanoan ne yah bhi bataya hai ki janasankhya ka vivechan karane mean desh mean upalabdh kul sanpatti ka dhyan rakhana chahie, keval khady padarthoan ka hi nahian. in sab doshoan ke karan malthas ka siddhaant vartaman samay mean svikar nahian kiya jata. prasangat: yah kaha ja sakata hai ki malthas ka siddhaant pashchim ke vikasit deshoan mean bhale hi lagoo n hota ho, eshiya ke avikasit deshoan ke lie to yah ab bhi kafi aansh tak sahi hai.

janasankhya ka adhunik ya anukoolatam siddhaant

janasankhya sanbandhi adhunik vicharadhara, anukoolatam ya adarsh siddhaant (aptimam thiyari) ke nam se prasiddh hai. henari sijavik ne isaki sthapana ki thi, yadyapi unhoanne adarsh shabd ka prayog nahian kiya tha. tatpashchath‌ kainan ne ise vyavasthit kiya aur kar saandars ne vaijnanik roop se pratipadit kar ise prasiddh bana diya. anukoolatam janasankhya ka arth kisi desh mean upalabdh samast sadhanoan ko dhyan mean rakhate hue ek adarsh sankhya se hota hai. yahi sankhya kisi desh ke lie sarvashreshth tatha vaanchhaniy mani gee hai. jab kisi desh ki vastavik janasankhya n to adhik hai aur n kam, bas thik utani hi hai jitani us desh ke sadhanoan ki matra, audyogik jnan tatha pooanji ki matra ko dekhate hue honi chahie, to yah kaha jata hai ki amuk desh ki janasankhya sarvottam biandu par hai. atev adarsh janasankhya vah hai, jisaka akar aur sangathan is prakar ho jo kisi vishesh samay mean vahaan ke prakritik srotoan ka adhikatam shoshan karane mean samarth ho; jisake phalasvaroop rashtriy tatha prati vyakti ki vastavik ay, arthik kalyan, jivanastar, adhikatam ho sake. adarsh janasankhya ke siddhaant ka yahi uddeshy hai. yah vah sankhya hai jo kisi desh mean honi chahie. yadi vastavik janasankhya is adarsh sankhya se adhik hai to janadhiky ki samasya paida ho jaegi, jo hanikarak hogi, kyoanki us halat mean prati vyakti vastavik ay mean kami ho jaegi aur yadi vastavik sankhya isase kam hai to bhi hanikarak hai kyoanki prakritik srotoan ke abhav mean prati vyakti ay pun: kam ho jaegi.

janasankhya sthir

kya sarvottam janasankhya sthir rahati hai? mil ki yah galat dharana thi ki kisi kshetr ke liye sarvottam viandu sarvada sthir rahega. parantu yah sankhya kabhi sthir nahian rahati varanh‌ parivartanashil hai. desh ki paristhitiyoan mean, utpadan pranali, krishi, kala tatha udyog mean vaijnanik unnati ke sath-sath sarvottam janasankhya bhi badalati rahati hai. yah anukoolatam janasankhya nirapeksh nahian hai. parantu upalabdh sadhanoan tatha arthik vikas ke star ke sapeksh hai. udaharanarth, aj bharat ke lie 43 karo d ki janasankhya adhik maloom hoti hai, parantu aj se bis sal bad yadi ham adhik ann paida karean aur adhik audyogik unnati kar lean to sanbhav hai ki isase bhi adhik janasankhya ko ooanche jivanastar par rakhane mean samarth hoan.

kya sarvottam janasankhya ko thik thik jnat kiya ja sakata hai? ab prashn yah uthata hai ki kisi desh ke lie sarvottam janasankhya kya hogi? kya yah vastav mean maloom kiya ja sakata hai? vastav mean yah kathin kam hai. pratyek desh mean arthik paristhitiyaan gatishil haian. utpadan ki nee-nee pranaliyaan nikal rahi haian. ne yantroan ka avishkar ho raha hai. in parivartanoan ke karan n to utpatti ka aur n prati vyakti ay ka hi thik-thik pata lagaya ja sakata hai. atev yah bhi batalana pray: asanbhav hi hai ki anukoolatam sankhya kya hogi. in kathinaiyoan ke hote hue bhi d aau. dalatan ne adhik ya kam janasankhya jnat karane ke lie ek sootr nikala hai, jisase sarvottam janasankhya ka anuman lagaya ja sakata hai. yadi m= vastavik aur adarsh janasankhya mean paya janevala kusamanjan, b= vastavik janasankhya aur a= adarsh janasankhya ho to-

m= (b--a)/a hoga.

yadi m (kusamanjan) ghanatmak hai to isaka arth yah hoga ki desh mean adhik janasankhya hai. yadi m rrinatmak hai to vah kam janasankhya ki pahachan hoga aur yadi me shoony hai to vastavik janasankhya adarsh biandu par mani jaegi. is sootr ka saiddhaantik mahatv bhale hi ho kiantu isaki vyavaharik upayogita kam hi hai.

janm dar, mrityu dar tatha shuddh pratijivan dar

janasankhya ke adhyayan mean janm dar, mrityu dar tatha shuddh pratijivan dar ka b da mahatv hai. janasankhya ki vriddhi tatha usase sanbandhit samasyaoan ka jnan inhian aank doan se hota hai. janmadar ka arth prati varsh ek hajar vyaktiyoan ke pichhe janm denevale bachchoan se hota hai. isi prakar mrityu dar ka arth prati varsh pratihajar vyaktiyoan ke pichhe maranevaloan ki sankhya se hota hai. in donoan ka aantar shuddh pratijivan dar (Survival rate) kahalata hai. udaharanarth, bharat mean prati varsh ek hajar par 40 shishu paida hote haian, jo bharat ki janm dar huee. prati varsh prati hajar par 27 ki mrityu hoti hai to yah mrityu dar huee. in donoan ka aantar 13 pratijivan dar huee. at: ham kah sakate haian ki bharat mean prati varsh prati hajar par ausatan 13 ki vriddhi hoti hai. janm mrityu ke aank de ausat ke roop mean lie jate haian.

shuddh prajanan dar

yadyapi pratijivan dar se ham janasankhya ki vriddhi ki dar ka pata laga sakate haian phir bhi is prakar ke anuman galat ho sakate haian. atev kujiansaki namak vidvanh‌ ne ek navin vidhi ke dvara janasankhya ki vriddhi ki map ki haian, jise shuddh prajanan dar kahate haian. unake anusar keval janmadar ka mrityudar se adhiky hi janasankhyavriddhi ki pahachan nahian hai. isaka vastavik praman to shuddh prajanan dar hai. janasankhya vriddhi ka sahi anuman lagane ke lie hamean striyoan ki ayu ke us kal ka, jisamean vah shishu ko janm dene yogy hoan , janmoan ki punaravritti tatha pratyek avastha mean jivit rah janevale bachchoan ki sankhyaoan ke aank doan ka paraspar samanvay karana p data hai. yadi man liya jae ki janm aur mrityu ki vartaman daroan par 1000 l dakiyaan age badhate hue apane jivan ki us avastha par pahuanchati haian, jab ve mata ban sakati haian (yani 15 se 40 varsh ki ayu tak) aur is avastha se gujarane ke bad yadi ve apane pichhe 100 l dakiyaan chho d jati haian jo age chalakar mata baneangi, ta isaka arth yah hua ki vartaman pidhi apane barabar ki sankhya baneangi, to isaka arth yah hua ki vartaman pidhi apane barabar ki sankhya mean doosari pidhi ko janm de rahi hai. yadi 1000 ke pichhe 1000 se adhik l dakiyaan utpann hoti haian to isaka arth yah hoga ki shuddh prajanan dar 1 se adhik hai. viparit paristhiti mean prajanan dar 1 se kam hogi. yahaan dhyan rahe ki is dar ko janane ke lie keval l dakiyoan ki hi paidaish par vichar karate haian kyoanki age chalakar ve hi janasankhya ki vriddhi ki dar ko prabhavit karati haian. kujiansaki ke shabdoan mean 'vah dar jisapar stri janasankhya apan apako pratisthapit kar rahi hai shuddh prajanan dar hai.'

janasankhya se prabhav

kya badhati huee janasankhya sarvada hanikarak hi hai? malthas aur usake anuyayiyoan ke anusar janasankhya mean vriddhi sarvada abhishap hi hai. parantu yah bhi sahi nahian ki vriddhi sadaiv sukhadayak hi hoti hai. sarvottam janasankhya siddhaant hamean janasankhya ki gati ko thik se samajhane mean sahayata pahuanchata hai. yadi vastavik janasankhya adarsh janasankhya se kam hai ta janasankhya mean vriddhi hone se hi prati vyakti ay badhegi aur isaliye vriddhi vaanchhaniy hogi. badhati huee janasankhya kabhi kabhi arthik vikas mean sahayak hoti hai tatha utpadan ko protsahit karati hai. shram vibhajan tatha vishishtikaran ke lie achchha avasar milata hai aur bazar ka vistar karake udyog dhandhoan ke vikas mean sahayak hoti hai. parantu yah sab tabhi tak hoga jab tak vastavik sankhya anukoolatam biandu se kam rahe.

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adhar

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madhyamik

poornata

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